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Green and Blue Infinity Leaf with TOP Ag Services LLC

I wanted to touch base on some thoughts for scouting wheat when the snow melts and the ground firms up. We have had an unusually long winter with excess snow, cold, and moisture. In spite of the late fall and other setbacks, we want to go back to the basics. This will help us focus on what we can do, instead of the items that are out of our control.

A reminder on what makes wheat yield:

-Plants/acre

-Heads/plant

-Seeds/head

-Weight/seed



So, with this in mind let’s start checking off our list what we have and then go to what we can do from here:

-Plants/acre We can not do anything about this now, but observation will help us determine our yield potential from here. For top potential we should see 22-25 viable plants/sq foot. If we have less than 20 good yields are still possible but the 100% potential has come off. This number will help us decide how much should we spend on Fungicides, etc.

-Heads/plant Ideally, we want to see by joint 3-4 tillers per plant. Due to the late fall, which was the best time for tillering, we probably only have 2. The main shoot and a tiller. If this fits your situation, as soon as it is dry enough or firm enough to go over the ground, we should front load 40-0-0-12 units of N and Sulfur to boost tillering before joint stage. If you have 3-4 tillers already and have good fall growth you may want to hold off on N if the N is sufficient for now. We would like to see around 80-100 heads/sq foot as we head towards joint.

Seeds/head & Weight/seed As we get to the joint stage we will want to apply the rest of the N for the grain fill. Also, we need to be looking at fungicides. Here is an article from K State: In general, the largest reductions in disease severity and greatest increases in wheat yield or grain quality occur when fungicides are applied between full extension of the flag leaves and anthesis (when the male flower parts have just begin to emerge). Applications intended for the management of glume blotch or head scab should be made between the beginning of anthesis and and 50 percent flowering. and here is an excerpt from David Hughes on managing this cost efficiently: If we are concerned about:

preventing and suppressing Fusarium head blight while having to deal with an early Stripe Rust infection. Because wheat is a “low margin” crop, many farmers did not want to apply fungicide twice to combat these infections. Farmers who applied a lower labeled rate of a preventative fungicide (ex. 2 to 4 oz. of Priaxor®) during stem elongation and before flag leaf emergence (about Feekes 6.5), were able to hold off the Stripe Rust. They were then able to suppress the Fusarium head blight with an application of Caramba, Proline, or Prosaro at flowering.

Do not use a single action strobilurin fungicide for Fusarium head blight as it has been shown to actually increase the toxin levels in the infected wheat.

If you need anything like assistance with scouting or input to help make a decision let me know.

"Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get!" -Mark Twain


A summer storm approaches, minutes away!

As a disclaimer to this article; let's be clear that I am not a weather enthusiast nor a professional in this field. However; based upon experience as a farmer reading multiple weather reports and also thoughts given to me by meteorologists, particularly the BAMWX.com team; here are a few thoughts on how to digest and look at weather forecasts in a simple, yet practical way.


A few points:


Long Term Seasonal Outlooks for Spring, Summer, Winter & Fall: Long term seasonal weather predicted on this broad of a scale gathers in meteorological drivers on a global scale. Thus, we have to think in terms of wetter/dryer and warmer/cooler phenomenons. Also, due to the great expanse of area needed to create these outlooks, we have to look at these weather patterns over a large areas. These forecasts are accurate over a large area. This might encompass 8-10 states; Midwest to Southern Plains for example. Thus, what is happening to your field may not reflect the general truth. That, the weather was drier than normal in 2018 in the area as your weather guy forecasted, even though the rainfall on that field in question was actually perfect for your crops, for example.


Long Term 3-4 Week Forecasts: Are you prepared for wetter than normal field conditions, like tillage, cover crop termination, fertilizer apps, etc? Does it change the risk of needing extra wind hail insurance due to the graphic storms that may happen? Plans and practices of the above actions may not be able to be acted upon in a several day or this week window. These forecasts help us have the proper equipment set & ready, the most critical fields spotted, and the necessary supplies to handle this event. This is the time to prepare mentally, and on paper; too. Communicate with your farming partners and work together to create the "if this, then we do that" plan. This costs nothing from a dollar stand point and can give us preparedness. When the sun shines we will act instead of reacting.


Shorter Term Forecasts: This is where weather can be forecasted very well. Especially, in the 24 hour periods of time. This is where risks are confirmed. Most of the time, we can go with the plan. On those few times that changes are needed, the decisions are simple and relatively minor. Remember, we have properly planned & prepared several weeks ago for this period of time.


In Summary: We know we can't eliminate risk from agriculture. However; we want to reduce risk when possible. If, for example; a long term forecast weeks ago said wetter than normal and 150 miles north they are getting that several inches of rain, but here the forecast over next week of wet weather has turned drier; that might be a green light to step up the intensity of getting crops planted as the worst of the storm passes to the north. Correctly identifying the risk of what could happen helps us have the plans in place to go or stop as needed. WIth our large equipment of today, a lot of progress can be made in a short time, but; a lot of damage, too if the weather is adverse.



Consultants on this report:


Meteorologist Michael Clark

with BAMWX.com

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